Indonesia is facing an acute dilemma. The third-largest democracy in the world, largest country in Southeast Asia and one of Australia’s biggest bilateral partners is grappling with democratic decline.

Historically, Indonesia’s democratic trajectory has been complex. Three decades under President Suharto’s authoritarian rule and the New Order system brought rapid economic development and growth, but it came at the expense of the people’s political freedom and rights. The regime unravelled in 1997 when the 'Reformasi' era finally ushered in democratisation and reforms, posing Indonesia as an emerging liberal democracy. 

Lately, Indonesia’s democracy has declined due to widespread corruption, dynastic politics and elite influence. The February 2024 election results are expected to continue Indonesia’s democratic undoing. 

Nanda Yuda Ikhwan Pradhana, a Monash Masters in International Relations student, found the 2024 election results unsurprising. As a member of the overseas polling team at the Indonesian Consulate General, he expressed disappointment observing the process from afar.

“Discussing politics, especially in our country, it’s run by the older people and younger people are required to respect the older people. We cannot really criticise them," Nanda said.

"One out of three Indonesians that had the right to vote this year didn't really experience the atrocities and chaotic reformations era that we have experienced in the past.”

He attributes the democratic downfall to more than just singular leaders.

“The main enemy of our democratic story is not merely just our tangible leader. Really the thing that’s limiting our options and limiting reforms is the battle of the oligarchs. It’s the interests of the elite who are fighting to dominate our economy.”

Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Redmond Barry Distinguished Professor at University of Melbourne, says that democratic regression began with the rule of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo, Indonesia’s most popular politician. 

“Jokowi was an outsider, he was the first person from outside the elite to be elected," Lindsey said. 

"Many people saw him as a clean skin and anti-corruption figure, a person who respects rights and democracy, because democracy was what got him into power.”

However, rather than safeguard democracy, it deteriorated dramatically under Jokowi, he said.

“For those who thought this outsider would shake things up, he was a great disappointment. Indonesia has gone from an emerging liberal democracy to what most international organisations that rank democracy, as they call it now, a fragile democracy. That's because under his rule, many of the sorts of things you'd associate with the rule of Suharto have been re-instituted, for example.” 

Lindsey attributes this to Jokowi’s collusion with political elites to suppress civil society and free speech. New laws also allow the government to dissolve civil society organisations without judicial process.

“Little by little, the bricks of the New Order system have been, in many ways, recreated under Jokowi. That's why it's said that Indonesia is now in a state of democratic regression.”

Who is Indonesia’s next president?

President Jokowi is expected to step down in October and cede the seat to former military general and controversial figure Prabowo Subianto. 

Prabowo has been implicated in several human rights allegations, including massacres during Indonesia's occupation of East Timor and the 1998 abduction of 23 student activists, 13 of whom never returned. While he admits to the abductions, he denies involvement in the massacres and disappearances. These events led to his dismissal from the army, exile to Jordan, and blacklisting by the United States and Australia.

After re-emerging in Indonesian politics, Prabowo became a frontrunner. Following three failed presidential bids, he joined Jokowi's cabinet. This alliance succeeded in the 2024 elections, with Prabowo running for president and Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming, as vice president, ensuring Jokowi retained influence.

Prabowo has also appealed to young voters as a social media darling. Millions of TikTok likes for his ‘grandpa dancing’ antics translated into votes that won him the presidential seat. This Gen-Z marketing, dubbing him a 'gemoy' (cute) old man through anime-like avatars and memes, has softened his image to a generation unaware of the dictatorship's past.

Yet the Prabowo-Jokowi alliance may not last long, according to Lindsey.

“Prabowo is 72 years old, and he has wanted this all his life. I don't think he's going to be anyone's puppet, let alone anyone's partner for very long. He's a man in a hurry. He's old. He's very sick. And he wants to make his mark and do it his way. Inevitably, there'll be a break between Prabowo and Jokowi,” he said. 

But he believes a falling out is unlikely until Prabowo bids his administration and power within government. 

Dr Ahmad Rizky Umar, a sessional lecturer at the University of Queensland and Griffith University, says he expects two initiatives from Prabowo’s leadership, the first being for the South China Sea.

China's sovereignty claims over disputed South China Sea territories are challenged by regional states, including Indonesia.

These geopolitical tensions strain relations with China, a key trading partner.

Negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) are under way to resolve the dispute.

“This is something Prabowo might want to resolve, in order to avoid any crisis in the region. The deadline for negotiation will be in 2026 to agree on the COC, and it will depend on Indonesian leadership,” Umar said. “Indonesia will be able to exert some leadership to urge Southeast Asian countries to read up on the COC’s diplomatic process.”

The second initiative would be Indonesia’s engagement with other powers. 

“Prabowo seems to take a more personalistic approach to his foreign policy. I expect that Prabowo will visit more countries than Jokowi, engage with other leaders, and then exert Indonesia's position more confidently on the international stage.”

Democracy under Prabowo’s leadership

Further democratic decline seems likely with a more authoritarian leader in the presidential seat.

“The biggest challenges for Indonesia's democracy now is freedom of speech, freedom of expression and academic freedom,” Umar said. 

“[Prabowo] doesn't like journalists, he doesn't like activists and that, to some extent, can lead to the tightening and restriction of freedom of speech in Indonesia.”

Yet all hope is not lost for Indonesia’s future.

“Indonesia's democracy has been resilient, despite Prabowo's win because there are several political parties, there is still competition,” Umar said.

“The fact that there is still a democratic decline shows that if Indonesia wants to continue to live with the democratic process, then people at the grassroots level should continue to speak out.” 

Umar hoped opposition leaders will bring about government checks and balances, but insists it is not just the political parties' task.

“It's to ensure that the hope for democracy will continue to live after Prabowo. The fact that Prabowo could win shows that the reform process in Indonesia is still incomplete. There is still a space for opposition to push on this, in order to complete the reform process after Prabowo.”

Similarly, as a young Indonesian watching from afar, Nanda hoped to put to use what he has learned overseas in pushing for a fairer Indonesia.

“As young people we need to be optimistic. Maybe in the future, when we come back to our home country, we could create reforms of some sort,” Nanda said.

Change, he believes, starts with reformation of political education for the younger population.

“There is hope for Indonesian democracy. We have been challenged. We have been tested through time. We can still intervene in a positive and meaningful way to make political education in our country better,” he said.

“Because we're still young, we have time to develop.”