BY CLANCY CHESTER
With the AFL Finals just hours away, MOJO News’ Clancy Chester has previewed the matches of the opening round and given his final thoughts and predictions leading up to the first bounce.
Port Adelaide vs Geelong
Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:50pm
Beginning with a repeat of one of last year's qualifying finals, the Power and the Cats are expected to set the tone for an exciting race to September in 2021.
For the Power, Mitch Georgiades’ injury and Sam Mayes’ omission will see star forward Orazio Fantasia make his return to the side. Geelong welcomes back Mitch Duncan who has recovered from his knee injury and will be replacing Max Holmes.
What needs to go right: Port Adelaide
After averaging 73 turnovers per game, the worst in the league this season, the Power will need to take serious control over this number tonight. In the two sides’ last meeting, a ten turnover difference in favour of the Cats was enough to cost the Power the game. They can’t afford to make these same mistakes.
Additionally, a backline led by Aliir Aliir will need to play out of their skin against a formidable Geelong forward lineup. Aliir will need to improve on his last performance against Jeremy Cameron, who managed to kick five goals on him.
Port Adelaide’s defence have excelled this year conceding the third lowest amount of points during the home-and-away season. However, up against an experienced Geelong outfit, they’ll need to bring their A-game, and some.
What needs to go right: Geelong
Geelong’s success will ultimately rest on the performance of their three-pronged attack - Tom Hawkins, Cameron, and Gary Rohan. No one outside of these three have averaged a-goal-a-game for the Cats, a problem no other team in the finals have.
At least two of the Cats’ big men up forward must have a strong performance if the Cats are going to have a realistic shot at winning this game. As Tom Stewart will be missing down back, you can be sure Port is going to find the goals with regularity.
Final thoughts
Geelong will have experience on its side with the majority of the team having plenty of finals games under their belt. However, with key players missing from the Cat’s lineup and Port’s recent form, the home side should come away with the win.
Prediction:
Port Adelaide by 22
Sydney vs GWS
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, Saturday 3:20pm
For the first elimination final of the season, tensions will be high as the Battle of the Bridge, between the competition's two Sydney based sides, heads down to Tasmania Saturday afternoon.
The Swans will be without both key midfielder Callum Mills and captain Josh Kennedy as Chad Warner and James Bell come into the side. Giants captain Stephen Coniglio and powerhouse ruckman Shane Mumford are set to return into the main 22.
What needs to go right: Sydney
With key ball winners Mills and Kennedy out of the side, the onus will be on the Swans’ young guns to take the weight off Luke Parker and the remaining senior midfielder’s shoulders.
Rising stars including Errol Gulden, Justin McInerney, and Tom McCartin have shown throughout the season that Sydney have some of the best young talent in the league. But more will need to be done by supporting figures to get them over the line.
Big performances will be required of young on-ballers Warner and James Rowbottom, both of whom have shown promise throughout the season but have tendencies to go quiet.
What needs to go right: GWS
Toby Greene will be pivotal in getting the Giants over the line this weekend. Leading the competition in average score involvements and posting elite level goal numbers, contested possessions, and inside 50s, Greene has the ability to take the game on, and make it his own.
The Giants’ numbers for both inside 50s and marks inside 50 may have lacked this season, but hope lies in their efficiency once the ball is up forward - second only to that of the Bulldogs.
If the Giants can at least get contests to the ball in the air, the size and speed of their forwards might just be enough to work with along the ground, and find their way into the second week of finals.
Final thoughts
As is usually the case when these two sides play each other, expect a high intensity game with plenty of emotion. Fans from both sides have plenty to be hopeful for down the line. However, as for this weekend, I don’t see the Giants overcoming a Swans lineup that’s simply a class above.
Prediction:
Sydney by 19
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm
The competition’s best offence will face up against its best defence as the Lions are set to take on minor premiers, the Demons, in the second qualifying final.
The Dees will undoubtedly be feeling confident coming into this weekend after solidifying their place atop the ladder off the back of a Max Gawn goal after the siren against the Cats. The Lions will also be backing themselves for this clash, fresh off snatching a top four spot from the Bulldogs in the last round of the season.
Both Harris Andrews and Mitch Robinson will return this week for the Lions as Callum Ah Chee and Ryan Lester exit due to injury. The Dees' side will remain unchanged from last week.
What needs to go right: Melbourne
Melbourne’s Achilles’ heel all season has been its inaccuracy kicking for goal. They average the fourth worst percentage (44 per cent) in the league and have the most behinds.
This area of their game may not have necessarily impacted them throughout the year, but come finals time, it's mistakes like these that can make or break a team’s season.
Melbourne’s first-class midfield will no doubt provide plenty of opportunities for their forwards, leading in hit outs and are second in the competition for inside 50s. However, it’s up to the Dees forwards to make sure these chances don’t go to waste.
What needs to go right: Brisbane
One of Brisbane’s biggest challenges this weekend will be withstanding Melbourne’s pressure, especially within the Demons’ forward 50.
A similar effort to last week will be needed from Daniel Rich and his defensive cohort if they are to resist the likes of Alex Neal-Bullen whose inside 50 tackles have helped Melbourne lead the competition in tackles this year.
Robinson and Andrews returning will provide much needed assistance moving the ball outside of their own 50, giving the Lions a necessary run-and-carry option against a powerhouse Demons midfield.
Final thoughts
Both sides will be riding into this weekend with enviable momentum. For this match however, Melbourne’s drive from its defence, and its sheer dominance at the centre bounce will prove too much for the Lions.
Prediction:
Melbourne by 28
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, Sunday 3:20pm
Two teams with very different stories from the past few weeks come together for the last match of the opening finals round. The Bombers are flying with three wins on the trot, while the Dogs have limped into the finals hampered by injury and poor form.
Kyle Langford and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will remain unavailable for return for the Bombers, who bring in Jye Caldwell, Martin Gleeson and Andrew Philips. The Bulldogs will be without both Hayden Crozier and Ed Richards again this weekend, with Ryan Gardner, Anthony Scott, and Rhylee West making returns to the side.
What needs to go right: Western Bulldogs
Against a fast-moving Essendon outfit, the Doggies’ first-class midfield will have no choice but to lift from disappointing performances over the past few rounds.
This especially means improving on their clearances, which has seen a major drop off in these last couple of weeks, going from an average of +8 differential throughout the season to -7 in the last three weeks.
Ball winners Tom Liberatore and Josh Dunkley will need to lift if the Bulldogs want any chance of dictating the ball movement against an Essendon side that has dominated the centre bounce clearances in recent weeks.
What needs to go right: Essendon
As for Essendon, the key to its success will lie in the impact of both Darcy Parish and Jake Stringer.
One of competition’s leading players for metres gained, score involvements, and centre clearances, Parish has been an essential cog in Essendon’s midfield all year.
Partnered with Stringer, whose influence within the forward half this season has proved vital to the Bombers' success, the duo’s ability to move the Bombers' ball quickly will pose a real threat to the Bulldogs’ defence.
Final thoughts
There’s no doubt that the Bulldogs have been one of the best teams in the competition all year. But once September rolls around, past performances rarely matter as long as you’ve made the eight. With these two sides on opposite ends of the momentum scale, the Bombers may just give us the first upset of the finals series.
Prediction:
Essendon by 8
