BY ADAM VAN WYK and JACOB O'BRIEN
As the federal election looms, the spotlight is on Victoria's key battleground divisions of Aston, Chisholm and Dunkley.
These swing seats will be crucial in determining the election result in Victoria — and who forms government after May 3 — with both major parties campaigning hard for the attention of voters.
Aston, which covers the eastern suburbs of Rowville, Ferntree Gully, Bayswater and Wantirna, was once considered to be a safe Liberal seat, having been held by the party since 1990 — most recently under Morrison government cabinet minister Alan Tudge.
The 2022 election saw a 7.3 per cent swing away from the Liberal Party. Then when Tudge retired in 2023, a by-election was triggered in Aston, which made for a much tighter contest.
Labor’s Mary Doyle, who achieved the swing in 2022, ran again in 2023, achieving a further 6.4 per cent swing toward her.
She gained the seat with a 3.6 per cent margin. This was the first time a government gained a seat from the opposition at a by-election in a century.
This election again brings a big challenge for the Labor Party in the seat of Aston, with a strong campaign from local teacher and Liberal candidate Emanuele (or Manny) Chicciello.
Chicciello, a former high school deputy principal and mayor of Knox (2004), has run in many elections before. He ran in Holt in 2007 and Bruce in 2013. Most recently, in 2020, he was barred from running in the Victorian Upper House due to a past criminal conviction.
He has been campaigning in Aston for more than a year as the Liberal candidate, with the hope of regaining this historical Liberal heartland.
In Chisholm, the abolition of Higgins and subsequent redistribution has added new challenges for both major party candidates.
Labor’s Carina Garland, who narrowly won the seat in 2022, is up against Liberal candidate Katie Allen. Before the last election, the Liberal Party held the seat with a margin of 0.5 per cent with Gladys Liu. Then Liu lost to Garland, who achieved a 6.9 per cent swing towards her and the ALP.
Allen, who has worked as a paediatrician at the Royal Children’s Hospital and is a former member for Higgins (2019 to 2022), is hoping she can leverage her experience to win back voters.
Earlier the Liberal Party had preselected Theo Zographos for Chisholm, but he was dropped in favour of Allen.
Allen is arguably one of the Liberals' strongest candidates, with numerous local election promises throughout the campaign as well as having one of the only campaign offices for Victorian Liberal candidates.
Such investment by the party shows the importance of, and party confidence in, being able to win back Chisholm.
Chisholm is set for a close battle, given the potential for the redistribution of the seat into the wealthier inner-eastern suburbs of Glen Iris and Ashburton to impact Labor’s chances.
Certainly a great watch ahead in Chisholm.
Dunkley, in Melbourne’s south-east, is one of the most diverse electorates, spanning the affluent Mount Eliza and Frankston South to working-class areas like Frankston, Seaford and Carrum Downs.
The 2024 redistribution brought in Bonbeach and parts of Chelsea, adding even more variation to its socio-economic and political profile.
This election marks the second match-up between Labor’s Jodie Belyea and former Frankston City Council mayor Nathan Conroy of the Liberals.
The two initially met in 2024 in a by-election after the passing of popular former MP Peta Murphy.
Murphy in 2022 achieved an increased majority. A close contest ensued in 2024, with Belyea retaining Dunkley for the Labor government, only with a 2.7 per cent margin.
This election will be a tight contest, with Belyea unlikely to receive so strong personal vote as she did in 2024.
Further, with a redistribution to areas of higher socio-economic status such as Chelsea and Bonbeach, the Liberals will be hoping to wrangle the seat back.
To keep up to date with the polling results, MOJO News will broadcast live on Channel 31 from 6.30pm on election night.
